Maturing Bull
The Model. The KP Trend Model remains Green. Full policy exposure to US equities. From the Trading Room. The KP Trend Model has two two elements: A price-based long-term trend study that changes direction less than once a year — it is currently positive by a considerable margin: We pair this study with the more sensitive (5.2 trades/year) KP-1 Model (below) which is based entirely on internal, non-price data. Since the underlying concept is completely different, this study has shown itself to be synergistic with the Long-Term Model. In combination, both produce a better...
Read MoreSpeculative Momentum
The Model: The KP Trend Model continues Green, full exposure to US equities. From the Trading Room: The price based KP Long-Term Model rose to a new high this week, confirming the new highs being set by leading market indices. The KP Intermediate-Term Model, powered by internal data, continues to improve on the way to recent rally highs, but still lags considerably from the heights attained during the massive 2021 market rally. This seeming disconnect between price performance and the daily internal data may reflect the more speculatively inclined investor chasing the technology...
Read MoreManaging Exposure Within a Trend
The Model. The Trend Model remains emphatically Green. Full policy commitment to US equities. From the Trading Room. The Multi-Media Bar on the homepage of our website displays 14 charts, the last of which is titled US Equities — Tactical Exposure and it looks like this: Here’s the reason behind this chart: Even when we are in a well-defined rising trend, as we are now, the market still experiences short-term fluctuations — overbought and oversold conditions — within the context of the longer-term trend. This chart is designed to help portfolio managers with...
Read MoreTempo Increasing
The Model: The KP Trend Model continues Green, full exposure to US equities. From the Trading Room: The KP Oscillators continue to be affected by day-to-day internal volatility causing them to fluctuate around their neutral lines. They end the week slightly overbought. This same internal volatility is currently giving the Intermediate-Term Model a boost, moving it solidly north of the sell trigger line deeper into a positive trading zone. Non-price (“internal”) data generated from trading activity each day plays a large part in the KP International Model and some oscillators....
Read MoreDrawdown is Everything
The Model. The KP Model remains Green – full policy exposure to US equities. From the Trading Room. When it comes to investing for retirement, the biggest challenge for investors is the volatility of the underlying investments — generally stocks and mutual funds — which, historically is quite large. Typically, it will run two or three times the expected annual return. For example, if we have a portfolio that has returned, say, 8% annually over the last 10 years, we can assume that the annual volatility of that investment ranged roughly from 15% to 25%. That’s challenging...
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