The Volatility of Oscillators
The Model: The KP Trend Model is Green, full exposure to US equities. From the Trading Room: Internals have continued to weaken as the major market indices all ended lower this week. This weakness is a concern, especially when it coincides with a sharp increase in volatility. The KP Short-Term Internal Oscillator that was last overbought in February, has been weakening since, and it fell into modest oversold territory this past...
Read MoreDivergences vs Momentum
The Model: The KP Trend Model continues Green, full exposure to US equities. From the Trading Room: The divergences we’ve been noting between the price performance of major indexes and our technical studies have become an ongoing concern for us. Certainly, all of is early since the indices remain their near all-time highs. For example, the KP Long-Term Model has been Green for more than a year, and the KP Intermediate-Term Model has been Green since last...
Read MorePossible Momentum Pause
The Model. The KP Trend Model continues Green, full exposure to US equities. From the Trading Room. Last week, we saw signs of a potential slowdown or pause in momentum, both with price and with the internal data. This slowdown is evident in the chart of the Intermediate-Term Model below. Our Tactical Exposure Study also Illustrates the pause by descending below its red neutral line and shifting to a ‘Plus 2’ status, which we read as ‘modestly oversold in the context of the advancing market trend.’ Assuming that the uptrend remains intact, the study suggests a...
Read MoreSpeculative Momentum
The Model: The KP Trend Model continues Green, full exposure to US equities. From the Trading Room: The price based KP Long-Term Model rose to a new high this week, confirming the new highs being set by leading market indices. The KP Intermediate-Term Model, powered by internal data, continues to improve on the way to recent rally highs, but still lags considerably from the heights attained during the massive 2021 market rally. This seeming disconnect between price performance and the daily internal data may reflect the more speculatively inclined investor chasing the technology...
Read MoreTempo Increasing
The Model: The KP Trend Model continues Green, full exposure to US equities. From the Trading Room: The KP Oscillators continue to be affected by day-to-day internal volatility causing them to fluctuate around their neutral lines. They end the week slightly overbought. This same internal volatility is currently giving the Intermediate-Term Model a boost, moving it solidly north of the sell trigger line deeper into a positive trading zone. Non-price (“internal”) data generated from trading activity each day plays a large part in the KP International Model and some oscillators....
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