Updates & Commentary

Weekly Updates on the KP Models

All Systems Go

Posted by on Sunday, Dec 10, 2017

All Systems Go

The Model.  I always worry when I write a positive headline such as “All Systems Go.” Yes, we need to acknowledge that anything can happen at any time.  Here on Earth, we’re just trying to understand the probabilities on the playing field, and try to make sure they are on our side.  Right now, the probabilities favor the upside:  the KP Trend Model remains fully green. Comment.  The trend of the market explains everything important that happens to your portfolio.  The market is basically everything — which is why we spend all of our time studying it. After all these...

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Advance Continues, Blue Chip’s Lead

Posted by on Sunday, Dec 3, 2017

Advance Continues, Blue Chip’s Lead

The Models: The Trend Model remains positive with both components continuing to flash green. Comments: This past week’s market action favored the Blue Chips and Financials. The more speculative leaning risk assets, especially those in the Nasdaq 100 Index, ran into resistance, as well as increased volatility. This had an impact on several of the short-term oscillator studies, causing them to pull back into their neutral zones where they remained at week’s end. The pull-back in the Nasdaq may be nothing more than a tension reliever as the KP tactical allocation model shifted to Plus 2,...

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Risk Assets Continue to Lead the Way

Posted by on Monday, Nov 27, 2017

Risk Assets Continue to Lead the Way

The Model.  The weather remains sunny for financial markets.  And it has been a productive year for US equities — our trend analysis engine has been right there, in green status for over 90% of all trading days. Comment.  As some of our short-term oscillator studies document every week, the Nasdaq 100 index (NDX) — white line at the top of this chart— has been in a world of its own, up 32% for the year so far and, if anything, appears to be accelerating.  In our experience,  risk assets such as the NDX do have a much more skittish constituency which is why we follow them.  They...

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Santa Approaching

Posted by on Sunday, Nov 19, 2017

Santa Approaching

The Models: The KP Trend Model remains positive, with both components solidly green. Tactical allocation status shifted to Plus 1 Friday, backing off from being aggressively long in previous weeks, reflecting the recent internal rebound. Comment: Volatility has been creeping up the past couple of weeks, as our short-term oscillators preached a significantly oversold condition, dug in, and have recently been driving nicely to the upside. This corrective short-term activity has not affected the long-term component of the Model that sits comfortably at its highs, riding the continuing and...

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Trend Model Remains Green

Posted by on Tuesday, Nov 14, 2017

Trend Model Remains Green

The Model.  The KP Model remains in green status, where it has been for 92% of all trading the days in 2017 so far.  Our early warning system, the Intermediate-Term Study, remains comfortably positive. Comment.  Since October 1, we have been in an “index picker’s” market, with some categories such as small-caps experiencing the most consistent corrections.  Yet it has not been “risk-off,” since our favorite party animal, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), powered through earnings season spectacularly.             Last week’s action...

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Majors to Highs – Internals Pause

Posted by on Sunday, Nov 5, 2017

Majors to Highs – Internals Pause

The Models: The KP Trend Model continues GREEN, fully committed to 100% Long Equities. Tactical allocation guidance remains at Plus 2, aggressive long positioning. Comments: The Intermediate-Term component (“IT”) of the Trend Model lost more ground this past week but is still comfortably above its trigger line. Judging from the action of the short-term oscillator studies, this apparent weakness may simply be the relieving of the exuberance exhibited during the last ‘power move’ that drove the IT component to its highest level in some time as the markets made new trading highs. At...

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