Avoiding Black Swans

The market itself determines 80%-90% of your portfolio’s volatility. The trend of the market is far more important than the selection of individual securities, although CNBC would have you believe otherwise. Keller Partners offers market analysis tools, that enhance portfolio performance, but — even more important — help manage the devastating portfolio drawdowns that occur in bear markets.

An Active, Defensive Portfolio

The Keller Partners 10×10 Portfolio [fact sheet] takes an unconventional approach toward a very conventional objective — a portfolio that delivers both “participation and protection.”  It begins with the premise that retirement portfolios need to participate fully in rising markets (such as the ones we’ve enjoyed for the last eight years), yet be able to survive the less frequent,

Has Your Ship Come In?

Here’s a quick rule of thumb:  at retirement, your nest egg should be roughly 20-25 times your annual withdrawal rate.  So, $40,000 of additional income a year implies a fund balance of $1 million, or $80,000 a balance of $2 million.  Lots of footnotes, but that’s the rough number.  There’s about $5 trillion invested in 401(k) plans today.  Sounds like a lot, but the average account is worth only $85,000.  What’s the problem?

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Market Trend Condition Green: Full Equity Exposure

The KP Trend Model is Green.

The KP Trend Model 1998-2006

Our processes and parameters have added value over time.

Intermediate-Term Model: Positive

The KP-1  Model Element is Positive

Intermediate-Term Trend Model Internals at High Level

The Intermediate-Term Trend is Positive

Long-Term Model: Positive

The KP Long-Term Model has been positive since April 1, 2016

Tactical Exposure:  Long at Plus 1

Our Tactical Exposure Model is long but not aggressively...

Small-Cap Trend Momentum is Improving

From a long-term perspective, the underlying momentum of high-risk assets is ...

Price-Based Nasdaq 100 Oscillator Overbought

This study is approaching its upper boundary.

KP Internal Oscillator Neutral

Our proprietary (non price-driven) short-term oscillator

Volume Oscillator Correcting

Another view of internal power and mean-reversion.  This study is based on a non-price...

Applying Today’s Tools to the 1987 Crash

Our Intermediate-Term Model’s current parameters and methodology avoided the 1987 Cr

Managing Beta Risk in a S&P 500 Portfolio

This chart applies the KP Model’s Exposure Management Model shifts to the S&P...

MPT Analysis: KP Model Managing the Nasdaq 100

“Crooked Smile” — More Upside Tracking Than Downside Tracking

Managing the Beta Risk of a Volatile / High Return Asset (Nasdaq 100)

The KP Model has been very successful risk-managing the NDX.