Managing Market Trends

The market itself determines 80%-90% of your portfolio’s volatility. That means that the trend of the market is far more important than the selection of individual securities, although CNBC would have you believe otherwise. Keller Partners offers market analysis tools, that enhance portfolio performance, but — much more important — help manage the devastating portfolio drawdowns of bear markets.

An Active, Defensive Portfolio

The Keller Partners 10×10 Portfolio [fact sheet] takes an unconventional approach toward a very conventional objective — a portfolio that delivers both “participation and protection.”  It begins with the premise that retirement portfolios need to participate fully in rising markets (such as the ones we’ve enjoyed for the last eight years), yet be able to survive the less frequent,

Has Your Ship Come In?

Here’s a quick rule of thumb:  at retirement, your nest egg should be roughly 20-25 times your annual withdrawal rate.  So, $40,000 of additional income a year implies a fund balance of $1 million, or $80,000 a balance of $2 million.  Lots of footnotes, but that’s the rough number.  There’s about $5 trillion invested in 401(k) plans today.  Sounds like a lot, but the average account is worth only $85,000.  What’s the problem?

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Market Trend Remains Green

The KP Trend Model is Green.

History of the Trend Model 1998-2006

Our processes and parameters have added value over time.

Intermediate-Term Model: Positive

The More Sensitive Intermediate-Term Element of our Model is Positive

Intermediate-Term Trend Internals Regaining Strength

The Intermediate-Term Trend remains Positive

Long-Term Model Remains Near Historic Highs

The KP Long-Term Model has been positive since April 1, 2016

Tactical Exposure:  Remains at Plus 1

Our Tactical Exposure Model moved to a Plus 1 reading — long, but not...

Small-Cap Trend Momentum Continues Weak

From a long-term perspective, the underlying momentum of these high-risk assets remains...

Price-Based Nasdaq 100 Oscillator

After a cluster of “sell” signals and a significant decline, the study has...

KP Internal Oscillator Remains in Overbought Territory

Our proprietary (non price-driven) short-term oscillator

Volume-based Oscillator Rebounding

Another view of internal power and mean-reversion.  This study is based on a non-price...

Applying Today’s Tools to the 1987 Crash

Our Intermediate-Term Model’s current parameters and methodology avoided the 1987 Cr

Managing Beta Risk in a S&P 500 Portfolio

This chart applies the KP Model’s Exposure Management Model shifts to the S&P...

MPT Analysis: KP Model Managing the Nasdaq 100

“Crooked Smile” — More Upside Tracking Than Downside Tracking

Managing the Beta Risk of a Volatile / High Return Asset (Nasdaq 100)

The KP Model has been very successful at risk-managing the NDX.